TheVote

More Thoughts On Edwards' Endorsement

Here are some follow up thoughts to Wednesday's post about John Edwards endorsement of Barack Obama...

courtesy abcnews.com

-Something interesting I noted in an email from Obama's campaign:

John ran a strong, principled campaign for president, focusing on a number of important issues where we share common ground -- universal health care, bringing our troops home from Iraq, and eliminating poverty in America.

The last time I checked, Obama's plan was not one that included universal health care.  Though I guess that depends on your definition of it.  Hillary Clinton is the one who made the point of mandated the care.  Barack Obama has made a point of assuring affordable health care without mandating it.  To me that's not universal care.

So I am not sure where that email statement really means.

-Edwards now adds another big voice in the chorus on new Obama supporters. RealClearPolitics has Obama in the lead with 290 Super delegates to Clinton's 273.  His overall lead, according to the site, is 170 delegates.

-There is already an "Edwards effect" helping Obama.  The Steelworkers Union, which had endorsed Edwards, has now backed Obama.

-Another Super Delegate from Indiana is endorsing Obama today.  That was state Clinton narrowly won the first week of May.

-Michael Dukakis, the 1988 nominee who lost to George HW Bush, isn't endorsing Obama but says he's well prepared to handle the GOP in the Fall.

-Again, all of this falls in line with what I wrote Wednesday.  Any momentum that Clinton might have swung from a big win in West Virginia is gone.  The talk is all Obama.

That idea is further reinforced by Scott Falmlen, a North Carolina political consultant, who emailed me today with the following:

While the timing of the Edwards endorsement may seem odd, I think it will still be very helpful to Obama.  He needed something to stop the conversation about Clinton's big win in WV...and the Edwards endorsement certainly did that to a large degree.

Obama will use the Edwards endorsement and the continuing movement of undecided super delegates to foster the reality that his nomination really is going to happen and now it's just a matter of waiting for the final contests to be finished...and the DNC Rules and Bylaws Cmte to enact a FL and MI solution on May 31.

I'd asked Falmlen his thoughts on the endorsement.  His firm does a lot of work with the DNC.  He was kind enough to respond.

-Now we just wait to hear from Al Gore.  Who if anyone will he endorse? 

Thanks for reading.  TA

Perfect Timing?

John Edwards is endorsing Barack Obama.

courtesy abcnews.com

I can't say that I'm surprised that he endorsed Obama.  Though I am surprised by the timing. 

If he wasn't to endorse ahead of North Carolina, why now?

If he wasn't to wait until after Obama officially wins the nomination, why today?

I think the timing is really interesting.  It will help Obama with white middle class voters who have tended to favor Clinton to this point.  It won't guarantee him that demographic, but it won't hurt.

Maybe the timing is aimed at hurting Clinton more than helping Obama.

He does this the day after she wins the West Virginia and sends out emails to supporters that read:

"it's clear that the pundits declaring this race over have it all wrong. The voters in West Virginia spoke loud and clear -- they want this contest to go on."

Instead of everyone in the political world talking about Clinton's win, they suddenly are taking about the two lawyers from Illinois and North Carolina.  It's brilliant politicking.

I wrote on February 18, that I thought Edwards was leaning Obama. 

I also wrote what I thought an endorsement might or might not mean:

Edwards has already said publicly that he is not interested in another run as a VP candidate.  So the question is...what DOES he want?  A cabinet post maybe?  Attorney General perhaps?

We'll see what comes next.  But I wouldn't be surprised to see him stump for Obama from time to time in key places.

The head of the North Carolina Democratic Party told me last week that a lot of people were upset that John Edwards' name wasn't on the ballot May 6.  Edwards dropped out on January 30.  But he had enough of a following that there were a lot of people who planned on writing in Edwards' name (even though the state wouldn't count the write-ins as valid).

That's a following.

Edwards is a good campaigner too.  He's likable, as is his wife, and never at a loss for words.

And despite being wealthy, he plays to the "common man".  I remember talking to him 2004 in Iowa about his support of an increased minimum wage.  I asked him if we was worried about what that might do to small business owners.  He replied, "Sometimes you just have to do what is right."  He meant, you have to do what is right for the have-nots.  That sentiment resonates with a lot of people right now.

And it could help Obama.

It certainly doesn't help Clinton as she tries to hang in there, raise more money, and win the remaining primaries between now and June 3rd.

Thanks for reading.  TA

Father Of The Bride: Answer

Here are the answers to the clues from Tuesday's quiz:

In honor of the President Bush's daughter getting married this past weekend, we'll recognize the president who's daughter was first to be married in the White House.

He was married with two daughters.  He also had a son who died young.  In 1820 his daughter, Maria, was the first to wed in the White House when she married Samuel L. Gouverneur.

Mickey Mouse made his famous debut in a cartoon about a mode of transportation upon which this man was the first to ride as president.

Mickey Mouse first starred in Steamboat Willie in 1928.  This president was the first to ride in a steamboat.

He would empathize with the men and women aided by Brooke and Reed.

This president was injured in the Battle of Trenton in 1776.  He was shot in the chest but survived.

This president was instrumental in the creation of Bourbon Street, Cous Cous, and Mike The Tiger.

He was heavily involved in the Louisiana Purchase.

His revolution was not televised.

He fought in the Revolutionary War and was the youngest government delegate to sign the Treaty of Paris, which ended the war.

And he played both sides of the Capitol.

He was elected to both the U.S. House of Representatives and to the U.S. Senate before becoming the fifth President of the United States.

The answer:  James Monroe (1817-1825)

Thanks for playing and check back next Tuesday for another challenge.  TA

Father Of The Bride

Tuesday is here and that means Trivia!

Last week was apparently harder than I'd anticipated, as many of you didn't hazard guesses as you had during week one and week two.

Let's see if this week is any easier (remember, I only know the answer because I wrote this and looked up the questions myself)...

In honor of the President Bush's daughter getting married this past weekend, we'll recognize the president who's daughter was first to be married in the White House.

Mickey Mouse made his famous debut in a cartoon about a mode of transportation upon which this man was the first to ride as president.

He would empathize with the men and women aided by Brooke and Reed.

This president was instrumental in the creation of Bourbon Street, Cous Cous, and Mike The Tiger.

His revolution was not televised.

And he played both sides of the Capitol.

Good luck.  Post your guesses in the comments section...and have fun.

Thanks for playing. TA

McCain's 2nd In Command

I get asked a lot who I think will end up as McCain's running mate.

I have no inside knowledge about that.  And as I've written in the past, the choice will ultimately be a historical footnote (unless assuming the presidency at some point).  And almost nobody goes to the polls on election and votes for a VP.

But there are those who may think more/less of a candidate based on who he/she chooses as #2.

To that end, there's an interesting post by blogger Ben Keeler from Ohio.  He goes through the people he thinks are realistic running mate possibilities for John McCain.

Here it is.  I think you'll enjoy it.

Thanks for reading.  TA

Poll Position

I don't know what the morning polls say yet about who's winning what.  But what I do know is that a lot of them are useless.

I am writing specifically about the polls that show national trends.  You know the one's:

McCain vs. Obama, McCain vs. Clinton, Clinton vs. Obama.

They don't matter one hoot, no matter who has the lead.  Don't believe me?  Then go ask Al Gore about it.

Our President is not selected based on a national popular vote.  If he were, George W. Bush might still be Governor of Texas.

Our President, as most of you likely know, is elected by the popular vote in each individual state.  The winner of a given state wins that state's electoral votes. Win enough electoral votes (regardless of national popular vote) and you're Commander-In-Chief.

So these national polls are about as useful as bringing a knife to a gun fight.

Here are some of these national polls from Sunday as found on RealClearPolitics.com...

General Election: McCain vs. Obama

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Obama (D)	McCain (R)	Spread
RCP Average	04/28 - 05/10	--	47.0	43.8	Obama +3.2
Gallup Tracking	05/06 - 05/10	4355 RV	47	44	Obama +3.0
Rasmussen Tracking	05/07 - 05/10	1600 LV	47	46	Obama +1.0
LA Times/Bloomberg	05/01 - 05/08	--	46	40	Obama +6.0
Ipsos	04/30 - 05/04	755 RV	46	42	Obama +4.0
USA Today/Gallup	05/01 - 05/03	803 LV	47	48	McCain +1.0
CBS News/NY Times	05/01 - 05/03	601 RV	51	40	Obama +11.0
Hotline/FD	04/30 - 05/03	803 RV	47	43	Obama +4.0
CNN	04/28 - 04/30	906 RV	49	45	Obama +4.0
FOX News	04/28 - 04/29	900 RV	43	46	McCain +3.0

(RV means registered voter, LV means likely voter)

There's even a really good breakdown of all of the data supplied by Gallup.  Though it means almost nothing.

But these polls pop up every week because they are easy to conduct.  They sound good.  They measure the "pulse" of the nation's voters.  And they don't take nearly as much effort as figuring out the landscape by individually counting the prospective electoral votes by the polls in each state.

So the next time you hear how one candidate has the lead over another...dig a little deeper.  Is it a national poll?  Is it a state-by-state poll?  Is it a poll of people born on the first Tuesday in May during a solar eclipse?

I am not discounting the possibility that Obama is realistically favored over McCain.  I am discounting the reality that it matters at all, given the way we elect presidents.

Who is ahead in Texas, Ohio, Florida, California, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan, and North Carolina.  Those are states that really matter.  It's the polls within those states that matter, that measure real trends...

Not the 50 state imaginary variety.

Thanks for reading.  TA

Happy Mother's Day!

We'd have no presidents without you!

courtesy FTD.com

Ye Olde Town Hall

I've mentioned before some of the political websites I like to read.  One of fast-growing influence is Politico.com

Every day, I get an email from "Mike Allen's Political Playbook".  It's filled with a lot of really interesting tidbits and things to look for.

Saturday's mentioned an effort by the McCain staff to consider a series of town hall meetings side-by-sidewith Obama.  Apparently the McCain camp thinks this plays to the Arizona senator's strengths.

From the playbook:

" 'The town hall meeting is John's best format,' the aide said. 'He's a natural campaigner up close with the public. That would test Obama's claims that he wants a clean fight on the issues. John is also strong on finance reform. If Obama reneges on public funding it will look bad.' "

This rasies some good questions.  Assuming that Obama is the nominee and faces John McCain in the general election, how will the two of them fare against the other?

Obama is the better orator.  But he has not been as strong in the debates.  It was evident in his more than 20 face-offs with Hillary Clinton.

McCain is personable and able to ad-lib on just about any subject.  So maybe the unmoderated efforts would benefit him.

That said...the traditional debates with podiums and moderators are already in the works...even without official nominees.

According to the Commission On Presidential Debates, which hosts the nationally televised debates after the conventions, there are three scheduled presidential debates and one for the Vice Presidential candidates.

The first is set for Oxford, Mississippi on Friday, Sept. 26.  That's three weeks after the end of the GOP convention in Minneapolis and a month after the Democrat;s convention in Denver.

There are also debates set for St. Louis and Hempstead, NY.  The VP's could face off in Nashville.

Of course the campaigns have to negotiate everything before these are set in stone.  But we are certainly inching closer to the meat of the election season...and that's not debatable.

Thanks for reading.  TA

The Passion Of Politics

You meet a lot of interesting people covering politics.  Almost all of them are partisans.

I can say I am certainly passionate about the process, though not so much about any candidate.  I guess I live with some sort of detachment when covering news.  I'm pretty unaffected by it.

But no matter where I travel to cover this race, I run into people who are very passionate about their candidates.  I've written about the dedication of Ron Paul's legion of supporters.

I get emails and comments almost daily from John McCain and Hillary Clinton supporters.

There is no doubt though, that Barack Obama supporters (for better or worse) have taken it to another level.

And while in Raleigh earlier this week, I went to Obama's logistical headquarters.  We were there to shoot video of campaign staff organizing volunteers to go canvass neighborhoods.

There I met a couple of those volunteers. Will and Ilina.  They told me about a video they'd created in support of Obama and asked if I was interested in viewing it. I said sure, and then i gave them my card with my blog link scribbled on it. 

They sent me the link.  And I watched it.  It's well done and lengthy...and focuses on how Obama would be good for American families.

I don't know that it has the "goose bump" effect of the "Yes We Can" video that I wrote about I while back....

But it certainly has a clear message:  there's Obama and nobody else.

There's more about the video in this brief article in the Raleigh, N.C. newspaper.

And here's the  video posted on Ilina's blog.

Thought you might find it interesting...even if your not passionate about any of the candidates. 

Thanks for reading.  TA

Bulls & Bears

In late January, when both nomination races were very much in doubt, I wrote about a company called Intrade.  It allows people to gamble on the likelihood of various occurrences. 

I wrote specifically about the odds in the presidential race.  And I posted an interview with the company's founder, John Delaney.

My how things have changed.

Back then, there was a 67% chance that Hillary Clinton would become the Democrat's nominee.  John McCain's chances stood at 51%.

Fast forward to today.

Barack Obama has an 89+% chance of winning the nomination.

There is no bidding on the GOP nomination.  But John McCain sits at under 40% to win the presidency.  More interesting now are the odds on the VP choices for McCain.  Tim Pawlenty seems to be the favorite, with Mitt Romney close behind.  Texas U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison is a distant fourth.

The site stays busy.  There have been more than 376 million orders placed since Intrade opened in 2001.

And as far as politics goes, you can also wage whether or not Eliot Spitzer, the former NY Governor now of call girl fame, will be indicted.  It's at a little more than 17 right now.

Nobody would have predicted that in January.

Thanks for reading.  TA

Good News, Bad News

I was packing Wednesday morning, getting ready to leave my hotel in Raleigh and fly back to Houston, when I saw something on TV that caught my attention.

John McCain talks to reporters

Senator John McCain, the presumptive nominee for the Republicans, was giving a speech about human trafficking.

Human trafficking.

According to some statistics...in 2005 as many as 800,000 people were trafficking across international borders.

It's a real problem n doubt.  But why is he talking about it on the campaign trail?

I'll give you two reasons: Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

Because they are still in the primary phase of the election process they are stuck talking about each other.

Even though Obama is trying to move on and act as the nominee (and will start visiting states that have already had primaries), Clinton is not getting out of the race.  She has loaned her campaign more money, she is working to win Kentucky and West Virginia. 

And so while they are preoccupied with each other, John McCain is free to pick and choose his subjects.  He can take tours.  He can take a lot of time to contemplate his running mate.  He can raise and save a lot of money.

With so many other issues that affect millions of Americans every day, he can take valuable time to talk human trafficking. 

Again, it's not that human trafficking isn't an important social/criminal issue to tackle.  But when was the last time you head a presidential candidate talk about it?

You hear a lot of pundits suggest that the lengthy primary for the Democrats is good.  Either Obama or Clinton will be battle tested.  They will be prepared for the general election.  John McCain hasn't been put through the wringer like they have and won't be as chiseled come November.

You also hear other ubiquitous analysts say that it's hurting the party.  It's dividing them. 

So there's good new and bad news about this extended primary.

The bad is that the Democrats are still looking for an "official" nominee.  They are still spending money and time on one another. 

The good for those of us who love the drama of politics.  It's good for television stations who love the easy money of political advertising.

And right now it's good for John McCain.

Thanks for reading.  TA

Game Changer

"There are those who are saying that north Carolina would be a game changer in this election.  But today what North Carolina decided is that the only game which needs changing in the one in Washington DC"

-Barack Obama, 913PM EDT May 06, 2008

With all due respect to Hillary Clinton supporters, the game changed Tuesday night while she was on the bench.

Barack Obama not only throttled the NY Senator in North Carolina by an incredible 16% (as of 1230AM Wednesday) but had inched to within 17,000 votes in Indiana.  Any gains Clinton made in her popular vote win in Pennsylvania evaporated.

Obama took the stage just after 8PM EDT on Tuesday inside NCSU's Reynolds Coliseum.  He was confident and sounded every bit the Democratic nominee for President.

"We are the party of Jefferson and Jackson...of Roosevelt and Kennedy and that we are at our best when we lead with principle, when we lead when we lead with conviction when we summon an entire nation to a common purpose and a higher purpose"

-Barack Obama, 918PM EDT May 06, 2008

Obama next to wife Michelle (in orange)

Other than congratulating Clinton on what he assumed would be an Indiana win, he failed to mention her name more than once or twice more during his 30 minutes speech.

He spoke of healing the party.  He talked of uniting and getting past the contentious primary.  He talked about John McCain.

He called a McCain administration the 3rd term for George W. Bush.

He addressed the issues he has hammered since 2006: the war in Iraq, health care, the economy...

He talked around Clinton.  He talked past her.  She is no longer on the same playing field.

"You still believe that this is our moment and our time to change America.   Tonight, we stand less than 200 delegates away from securing the democratic nomination for president of the United States"

-Barack Obama, 915Pm EDT, May 06, 2008

There may be some mathmatical formula that puts Hillary Clinton in position to win the nomination.  There may be a DNC decision to count Florida and Michigan and to stretch this past Howard Dean's July 1 deadline.

But short of that...she statistically out of it.

Kentucky and West Virginia play to her strengths.  Both are rural, working class states that favor the types of voters who've swung Clinton's way.  Those two states could give her a boost.

But let's be real.  The game has changed.  And she's finding it tough to be a player.

Thanks for reading.  TA

Aspire & Then Focus: Answer

Thanks for participating in week three. 

I'm returning from NC today and heading back to Houston.  It was a good, quick trip that I hope added some perspective to the race at hand.

Now for the facts behind the clues...and the answer to this week's trivia:

This president was too sexy for Right Said Fred.

The 1992 pop song "I'm Too Sexy" by the group Right Said Fred was about a fashion model, a job this president once held.

He could tell the masses about being faithful.

He was the only president who worked as a National Park Ranger, having spent time at Yellowstone (home to Ole Faithful) in the 1930s.

Some might say he wasn't a player who was ready for prime time.

He was satirized repeatedly by the cast of the brand new late night hit "Saturday Night Live", whose ensemble cast was known as "The Not Ready For Prime Time Players"

He was one of five to serve less than a full term and not die in office.

The other four were John Tyler, Millard Fillmore, Andrew Johnson, and Chester A. Arthur.

25 should have been his favorite number.

He served in congress for 25 years and became Vice President under the terms of the 25th amendment to the constitution.

He was a cornhusker, though seldom identified as such.

He was born in Omaha, NE but considered a Michigan native.

The Answer: Gerald Ford, 38th President (1974-1977).

As for the title to the post...

Both Aspire and Focus are models of cars made by Ford Motor Company.

If you have ideas for next week, email me directly at tom.abrahams@abc.com

Thanks for playing. TA

Victory At Reynolds?

Tonight Barack Obama will deliver his election night speech at Reynolds Coliseum. 

Reynolds Coliseum

It's the basketball arena on the campus of North Carolina State University.  And it has quite a history.

The arena was home for the men's basketball team until they moved to a new facility off campus a few years back.  The women still play there.

But Reynolds was something special for the men's program for a long time.  It was where Jim Valvano coached the miracle 1983 Cardiac Pack, the last NC State team to win the NCAA tournament.  I know Coog fans are cringing to this day...

Jim Valvano, 1983

It was there that the great David Thompson played in 1974 and led the team that interrupted UCLA's historic NCAA tournament run in the Final Four.

It's designed after the famed Cameron Indoor Stadium up the road at Duke University.  It was, in fact, supposed to be the exact same size.  But construction stopped due a steel shortage during World War II.  And when the project was finished in 1948, they added additional seats at the end of the court on each side.  So the building was especially deep at the end and narrow on the sides of the court.

Reynolds Coliseum was also where I worked as a teenager.  I got my first paying job in broadcasting at age 16.  I was a production assistant for NC State's sports radio network.  Before each home basketball game during the 1987-88 and 1988-89 seasons, I would show up to the empty coliseum 2 hours before tip off.  In addition to helping set up the audio board and head sets for the play-by-play man (Wally Ausley) and the color man (Gary Dornberg), I was in charge of setting up the ambient microphones.

I would find a painter's ladder hidden underneath the stands and lug it to each basket.  Then I would use tape to affix a wireless microphone underneath each rim.  That way, the listeners could hear the clang of he rim or the swoosh of the net.

My other duty was to hook up the wireless talk back microphone and speaker in the team's locker room.  That way, after the game, Ausley and Dornberg could talk to the coach live.

I got paid $15/game and got a press pass to sit courtside.  I also got free food.  I got to watch UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, DePaul, UVA...the big programs of the 1980's play the home Wolfpack.

The job was awesome.

I haven't been back there since the final home game in 1989.  Wow.

Now, the stakes are much bigger than an ACC basketball game (though basketball fans here might beg to differ).  A presidential race is on the line.  And I still have a courtside press pass.

Though I am making slightly more than $15/day now (and the job's still pretty cool).

We'll be live tonight at four, five, six, and ten.  And I'll have additional details on my blog post late tonight/early Wednesday.  By the way, our luggage made it to the hotel last night. 

Thanks for reading.  TA

Aspire & Then Focus

I'm in North Carolina today covering the primary here. Click here to see pictures from last night's President Clinton event...

But I couldn't let Tuesday pass without week 3 of Tom's Tuesday Trivia.  The response the previous two weeks has been great.

So here we go for week three.  And again...the answer is one of our forty-three U.S. presidents.

This president was too sexy for Right Said Fred.

He could tell the masses about being faithful.

Some might say he wasn't a player who was ready for prime time.

He was one of five to serve less than a full term and not die in office.

25 should have been his favorite number.

He was a cornhusker, though seldom identified as such.

If you think you've got it...please post the answer in the comments section.

Here's last week's question in case you missed it.  And the answer.

Good luck and thanks for playing.  TA

Waiting on 42.

I'm getting the sense that Senator Hillary Clinton has some momentum. 

Sometimes it's hard to tell because you get swept up in the enthusiasm of a political rally.  But I think she'll do well here in North Carolina.  I don't know that she'll win, which she really needs to do, but it's not going to be a ten point victory for Senator Barack Obama.  That's just my sense.  And as has happened before, I could be wrong.

We spent last night at Clinton's HQ in Raleigh, where we awaited President Bill Clinton's arrival.

It was the only event last night around news time.

The Clinton staff was helpful and accommodating.  They let me into a volunteer pep talk to shoot some pics.  And there were plenty of volunteers.  The staff was even turning some away, because they need a lot of help tomorrow canvassing.

volunteers getting a peptalk

In the latest flash poll conducted by our sister station WTVD and SurveyUSA, Obama held a five point lead over Clinton.  But in previous states she has managed to win many of the last minute undecideds.  That could be the case here, in a state where registration was allowed until Saturday, May 3.

inside the Clinton Campaign Office

At the rally, there were probably three or four hundred people.  It was late for a Monday night and President Clinton arrived about an hour late.  We were his 9th out 9 stops for the day.

He didn't speak that long and he seemed tired.  I've seen him speak five times now.  The last time was while he campaigned for his wife in Houston in March.  He seemed to have a lot more energy there. 

Then again that was forever ago in the scheme of a long presidential campaign.

He did work the rope line and sign autographs for a good fifteen minutes.  I think he likes that part better than the stump speeches.

President Clinton In Raleigh

He'll be here all day Tuesday, criss-crossing the state again.  His wife will be in Indianapolis at an event there (she's leading that state in the polls).

Obama will be here in Raleigh.  I'll have more on that in my next post.

Thanks for reading.  TA

On Tobacco Road

We're here in Raleigh.  Landed an hour late (bad weather in Houston this morning) and without some of our gear.  My photographer, Willie Dixon, is without his camera tripod, extra videodiscs, and wireless mics.  Supposedly it came on the next flight and will be delivered to our hotel tonight.

Stuff happens...

We've been running back and forth between Raleigh and Durham (two separate cities) this afternoon.  We have interviews with the chair of the state's democratic party and with a political consultant.  Both of those interviews will air Tuesday.

As I write this, I am sitting in the corner of the lobby for the Hillary Clinton NC Headquarters.  They've been nice enough to give me an outlet to plug in my laptop.

We are awaiting a Bill Clinton stump speech.  The old pickup truck from which he'll speak pulled up an hour ago.  It's a staple of the campaign for him.

500-thousand voted early or absentee here.  Record numbers.  Should be a big day tomorrow.  Polls show Obama up by five.

I'll have pics of the Pres Clinton visit in a later post.

Now I'm out to the live truck to prepare my report for ten tonight...

Oh, and my dad called to make sure I got here okay.

Thanks for reading.  TA

In My Mind

Today I am traveling to North Carolina to cover the state's presidential primary. 

As some of you might have noticed from the return envelope image in my post about a letter to President Jimmy Carter, I used to live there.

I grew up there.  My parents still live there.  So does my sister and her family.

Yet, in my fifteen plus years of T.V. reporting, I've only reported from the Tar Heel state once.  It was in the midst of a Hurricane (Bertha I think) in 1996.

So this will be the first time I've really spent more than a few hours there in a professional capacity.  And I'm pretty excited about it.

When I left North Carolina, George H.W. Bush was early into his term as president.  We'd never been to war in Iraq.

My computer was a Commodore 64.

Hillary Clinton was the first lady in Arkansas.  And Barack Obama was a law student at Harvard.

Things have changed.  George W. Bush is president.  We're in the midst of our second war in Iraq.  The flash drive that plugs into my laptop has 8 times the memory of the C-64.  Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are U.S. Senators who are a delegates away from winning their party's nomination for the presidency.

This is arguably the most fascinating primary in that state's history.  Nobody would have figured (as was the case with every state after Super Tuesday) that N.C. would matter in the scheme of things.

The votes cast there were to be little more than icing on a nomination cake already served and ready to cut.

Now it matters. 

And both candidates have spent a lot of time and money there.  They've also raised a lot of money there.  A traditionally conservative state that elects a mix of Republicans and centrist Democrats, N.C. has a chance to pick the nominee.  A 6 to 10 point win for Obama all but guarantees him the nod.  A win of any kind for Hillary Clinton gives her camp hope to continue through to the first Tuesday in June.

We'll be bringing you live reports beginning tonight at ten on Eyewitness News. We expect to have an interview with the chair of the state's Democratic party (who is an uncommitted superdelegate).  So you'll want to tune in for that later tonight.  We may post some of it here too...

And then we'll be on the air throughout the evening on election day...in between trips to my favorite local BBQ restaurant, "The Barbecue Lodge".

photo courtesy of keelin jacobsen

(click and scroll down to read about it).

I will also try to post mulitple updates with information I cannot include in my reports.  So check back frequently. 

Thanks for reading.  TA

Half A Baker's Dozen Plus Point Five

Are you kidding me?

Seven votes?

Are we sure they didn't count the votes from Dixville Notch, NH instead of those from the American held Pacific Island of Guam?

courtesy oceania maps

In case you haven't heard, seven votes is what separated Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in Saturday's primary.

This is from the Saturday night CNN.com write up:

With all 21 precincts reporting, Obama finished with 2,264 votes, or 50.1 percent. Sen. Hillary Clinton got 2,257 votes, or 49.9 percent.

Each candidate picked up two delegates.

It's true that the chances of either candidate picking up more than one delegate over the other was slim.  But a tie...

This makes Florida 2000 look like a landslide (not statistically but, for effect, play along with me).

And it speaks volumes.

Little Guam, with its Air Force Base and flat-roofed, typhoon resistant houses, is right in touch with the rest of the country.

Apparently sound really does travel well through water. 

I'm not trying to make too much of the vote.

Guam has 154,000 residents (2000 census).  It's just 212 square miles.  It's been a U.S. territory since 1949.

But it is a microcosm of what we've seen here on the mainland.

Obama won Iowa.  Clinton took New Hampshire.  They split Super Tuesday.  Obama won a string of contests during February only to lose Texas and Ohio to Clinton.

It's a toss-up. 

It's that close.

And though I think Obama's delegate count is too much for Clinton to overcome, Guam says a lot about where these campaigns have been since the voting started four months ago.  It tells us how different the two candidates really are and how much division there is among voters.

Seven votes.

Thanks for reading.  TA

Running On Empty? Hardly...

This gas tax thing has legs.

And it really seems to be a central campaign issue for Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton on Tuesday.

Friday I wrote about a pro-tax break conference call with the Clinton campaign.  24 hours later, the Obama camp is holding its own call to talk gas.

On the call was U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill, (D) Missouri, who is  in North Carolina this weekend campaigning for Obama.

Senator Claire McCaskill, (D) MO

She says says the tax break doesn't make sense on any level.  And she thinks that it's insulting that people would cast a vote for less than a half tank of gas (assuming your savings is about $30 over the summer).

And she says Obama isn't willing to buy votes with a gimmick.  Just as I didn't agree with Howard Wolfson's assessment that a vote for Hillary was a vote for the gas tax break, I don't think she's "buying" votes either. 

On the conference call were reporters from Newsday, AOL news, The Charlotte (N.C.) Observer, and others.  They asked varied questions.

When is was my turn in the cue, I asked Senator McCaskill if she was surprised by the attention given to the gas tax issue in the final days before the primary, given that there are so many other issues facing North Carolinians and Indianans.

She said she's not surprised because the tax issue is important on two levels.

"First," she said, "people are worried about paying their bills every month.  And an obvious sign of a stressed economy is increased fuel costs and the ripple effects it causes."

She says she's also not surprised because of the difference in the candidates.

She believes that Clinton reacted to Senator John McCain and adopted a plan that won't work. 

"It's ludicrous," she said, "to think that there'll be a gas tax break this summer."

At the same time today, Clinton's camp released a transcript of a speech she gave this morning in Wake Forest, N.C..  Here's part of it:

You’ve probably heard the debate about the gas tax, because my opponent is running ads and holding press conferences attacking my plan to try to give you some kind of break this summer.

“Now, it's important to me that we come up with solutions, and in a campaign, sometimes that's hard, because of the back and forth in the campaign. But it is important, too, for you to see clearly what it is I propose and what I would do. There is no contradiction between trying to provide immediate relief and having a long-term vision and a plan for what we must do to lessen our dependence on foreign oil, and to be moving towards more home-grown fuels.

“So here is what I propose: I want the oil companies to pay the federal gas tax this summer. Now, some people say, well, that wouldn't save the average consumer all that much money. Well, we figure we'd save about $70 for the average consumer. It would save a whole lot more for truck drivers, for farmers, for people who commute long distances to work, who rely upon transporting the goods they sell for their business. And it would probably save truckers $2 billion in fuel costs, just for the summer. And that's $2 billion that wouldn't go into the cost of the food that you go to the grocery store to buy.

So while you may have thought health care or the war in Iraq would be the issues getting special attention this weekend.  Think again.  And maybe a vote for Hillary is a vote against the gas tax after all.

Thanks for reading.  TA